Performance of prediction models for short term outcome in COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: a retrospective study (preprint)

IntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a high burden on the healthcare system and demands information on the outcome early after admission to the emergency department (ED). Previously developed prediction models may assist in triaging patients when allocating healthcare resources. We aimed to assess the value of several prediction models when applied to COVID-19 patients in the ED. MethodsAll consecutive COVID-19 patients who visited the ED of a combined secondary/tertiary care center were included. Prediction models were selected based on their feasibility. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, secondary outcomes were 14-day mortality, and a composite outcome of 30-day mortality and admission to the medium care unit (MCU) or the intensive care unit (ICU). The discriminatory performance of the prediction models was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). ResultsA total of 403 ED patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. Within 30 days, 95 patients died (23.6%), 14-day mortality was 19.1%. Forty-eight patients (11.9%) were admitted to the MCU, 66 patients (16.4%) to the ICU and 152 patients (37.7%) met the composite endpoint. Eleven models were included: RISE UP score, 4C mortality score, CURB-65, MEWS, REMS, abbMEDS, SOFA, APACHE II, CALL score, ACP index and Host risk factor score. The RISE UP score and 4C mortality score showed a very good discriminatory performance for 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83 and 0.84 respectively, 95% CI 0.79-0.88 for both), for 14-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 95% CI: 0.79-0.88, for both) and for the composite outcome (AUC 0.79 and 0.77 respectively, 95% CI 0.75-0.84). The discriminatory performance of the RISE UP score and 4C mortality score was significantly higher compared to that of the other models. ConclusionThe RISE UP score and 4C mortality score have good discriminatory performance in predicting adverse outcome in ED patients with COVID-19. These prediction models can be used to recognize patients at high risk for short-term poor outcome and may assist in guiding clinical decision-making and allocating healthcare resources.

Validating the RISE UP score for predicting prognosis in patients with COVID-19 in the emergency department, a retrospective study (preprint)

ObjectiveTo mitigate the burden of COVID-19 on the healthcare system, information on the prognosis of the disease is needed. The recently developed RISE UP score has very good discriminatory value with respect to short-term mortality in older patients in the emergency department (ED). It consists of six items: age, abnormal vital signs, albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and bilirubin. We hypothesized that the RISE UP score could have discriminatory value with regard to 30-day mortality in ED patients with COVID-19. SettingTwo EDs of the Zuyderland Medical Centre (MC), secondary care hospital in the Netherlands. ParticipantsThe study sample consisted of 642 adult ED patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between March 3rd until May 25th 2020. Inclusion criteria were: 1) admission to the hospital with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, and 2) positive result of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), or (very) high suspicion of COVID-19 according to the chest computed tomography (CT) scan. OutcomePrimary outcome was 30-day mortality, secondary outcome was a composite of 30-day mortality and admission to intensive care unit (ICU). ResultsWithin 30 days after presentation, 167 patients (26.0%) died and 102 patients (15.9%) were admitted to ICU. The RISE UP score showed good discriminatory value with respect to 30-day mortality (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.73-0.81), and to the composite outcome (AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.76). Patients with RISE UP scores below 10% (121 patients) had favourable outcome (0% mortality and 5% ICU admissions). Patients with a RISE UP score above 30% (221 patients) were at high risk of adverse outcome (46.6% mortality and 19% ICU admissions). ConclusionThe RISE UP score is an accurate prognostic model for adverse outcome in ED patients with COVID-19. It can be used to identify patients at risk of short-term adverse outcome, and may help guiding decision-making and allocating healthcare resources.

CT in relation to RT-PCR in diagnosing COVID-19 in the Netherlands: a prospective study (preprint)

Introduction Early differentiation between emergency department (ED) patients with and without corona virus disease (COVID-19) is very important. Chest CT scan may be helpful in early diagnosing of COVID-19. We investigated the diagnostic accuracy of CT using RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 as reference standard and investigated reasons for discordant results between the two tests. Methods In this prospective single centre study in the Netherlands, all adult symptomatic ED patients had both a CT scan and a PCR upon arrival at the ED. CT results were compared with PCR test(s). Diagnostic accuracy was calculated. Discordant results were investigated using discharge diagnoses. Results Between March 13th and March 24th 2020, 193 symptomatic ED patients were included. In total, 43.0% of patients had a positive PCR and 56.5% a positive CT, resulting in a sensitivity of 89.2%, specificity 68.2%, likelihoodratio (LR) + 2.81 and LR- 0.16. Sensitivity was higher in patients with high risk pneumonia (CURB-65 score [≥]3; n=17, 100%) and with sepsis (SOFA score [≥]2; n=137, 95.5%). Of the 35 patients (31.8%) with a suspicious CT and a negative PCR, 9 had another respiratory viral pathogen, and in 7 patients, COVID-19 was considered likely. One of nine patients with a non-suspicious CT and a positive PCR had developed symptoms within 48 hours before scanning. Discussion The accuracy of chest CT in symptomatic ED patients is high, but used as a single diagnostic test, CT can not safely diagnose or exclude COVID-19. However, CT can be used as a quick first screening tool.